Scott Devitt
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And when we get to the other side of the spend, I think there's going to be quite nice returns for these companies.
I mean, the market is very skittish right now around...
AI and you've seen software companies, you know, multiples collapse.
And so we're just at a, you know, I think a bit of a pause in the cycle where investors are reevaluating how they should be thinking about the growth prospects and the offsetting spend.
And so I think that this alphabet, you know, kind of narrative feeds into that.
So the initial knee-jerk reaction off of that
significant capex number the 180 billion you know is relative to 120 billion was the consensus estimate for for 2026 and so you get that knee-jerk sell-off and then i think investors go back and say hold on a second you know this is this is very positive for the long-term prospects of the business we have to digest this a little bit but growth here is outstanding i mean that 50 48
growth in the cloud business is pretty amazing.
Well, I'll tell you, for the infrastructure companies, it definitely validates the numbers that have been thrown around by companies like NVIDIA and otherwise in terms of that the spend is real.
That's one point.
I think stock performance tends to be best in harvest mode.
So on the back of an investment cycle, when an investor can see the returns and the associated growth that comes in the back of an investment cycle, tends to be when stock performance is best.
You have this 180 billion number by alphabet.
You have 125, I think, by meta.
Amazon's current estimate is 155.
For 26, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's closer to where alphabet is.
And so we're ending this period where...
you know, 2022 was kind of the year of discipline and that continued in 24.
You started to lose it in 25 and now we're getting back into investment mode again.
And so with that, I think, you know, expectations have to be a little bit more tempered that returns will still be decent, but you have to climb that hill.