Scott Horton

when the four stars were saying, it's all downhill from here. So you got a good, and they did, by the way, you know, the occasion at the time, Dave, was that

when the four stars were saying, it's all downhill from here. So you got a good, and they did, by the way, you know, the occasion at the time, Dave, was that

on the weekend of September 11th, Ukrainians had done this great feint and had made major gains in Kharkiv province and, or, you know, Oblast and also down in Kherson where they had essentially forced the Russians back to the Southern and Eastern side of the river there. And so that was, you know, to their credit, but then that was all they were going to get. And all the, the,

on the weekend of September 11th, Ukrainians had done this great feint and had made major gains in Kharkiv province and, or, you know, Oblast and also down in Kherson where they had essentially forced the Russians back to the Southern and Eastern side of the river there. And so that was, you know, to their credit, but then that was all they were going to get. And all the, the,

The actual reasonable pundits on this knew it at the time, too. Everybody wise who you would turn to for any opinion on this kind of thing at all that you could find all said the same thing, which was even Mark Milley is saying quit now, which that should have been all you need to know.

The actual reasonable pundits on this knew it at the time, too. Everybody wise who you would turn to for any opinion on this kind of thing at all that you could find all said the same thing, which was even Mark Milley is saying quit now, which that should have been all you need to know.

I mean, the medium term future here at minimum just completely sucks for everybody as well because no matter exactly how the war finally comes to an end, Russia's not losing that territory. They have essentially absorbed the most pro-Russian population of Ukraine into Russia just by expanding the line around them. But what that means is they've moved them out of Ukraine.

I mean, the medium term future here at minimum just completely sucks for everybody as well because no matter exactly how the war finally comes to an end, Russia's not losing that territory. They have essentially absorbed the most pro-Russian population of Ukraine into Russia just by expanding the line around them. But what that means is they've moved them out of Ukraine.

And so now nobody in Ukraine is pro-Russia anymore. Or the ones who are even sympathetic at all are going to be far more marginal in Russian politics now, which is going to be even more heavily dominated by the nationalists from far out west. who absolutely hate Russia. And I don't know if they're going to be allowed.

And so now nobody in Ukraine is pro-Russia anymore. Or the ones who are even sympathetic at all are going to be far more marginal in Russian politics now, which is going to be even more heavily dominated by the nationalists from far out west. who absolutely hate Russia. And I don't know if they're going to be allowed.

I don't think they ever will be allowed to join NATO, but they may still join the EU and they still will be, you know, anti-matter force stuck right there, sharing a border with matter in the form of Russia from now on. And so I expect there to continue to be problems, you know, kind of ongoing even after the civil war

I don't think they ever will be allowed to join NATO, but they may still join the EU and they still will be, you know, anti-matter force stuck right there, sharing a border with matter in the form of Russia from now on. And so I expect there to continue to be problems, you know, kind of ongoing even after the civil war

or the the major war comes to an end um and including what could be a nazi-based insurgency uh led by the likes of andrew beletsky and dimitri yarosh and these others who you know it is after all a massive country and the russians still only control like the eastern and southern fifth of it right i mean it's the size of texas which there's a reason the size of Texas is a cliche.

or the the major war comes to an end um and including what could be a nazi-based insurgency uh led by the likes of andrew beletsky and dimitri yarosh and these others who you know it is after all a massive country and the russians still only control like the eastern and southern fifth of it right i mean it's the size of texas which there's a reason the size of Texas is a cliche.

It's because it's huge. It's the same as Afghanistan. So now a lot of it is barren steppe and not very conducive to insurgency, but they do have some forests and some swampland and some other places where they could be based out of. And so I'm sure there are those who would want to continue to fight over the long term.

It's because it's huge. It's the same as Afghanistan. So now a lot of it is barren steppe and not very conducive to insurgency, but they do have some forests and some swampland and some other places where they could be based out of. And so I'm sure there are those who would want to continue to fight over the long term.

I don't know whether the national central state would be able to stop them or not. I don't know that this is what Zelensky is thinking, but he has reason to fear that these guys would kill him if he makes peace. They've said that they would over and over again. Even before the war, when he first took power in 2019, they threatened to kill him over all the guys who died in the war so far.

I don't know whether the national central state would be able to stop them or not. I don't know that this is what Zelensky is thinking, but he has reason to fear that these guys would kill him if he makes peace. They've said that they would over and over again. Even before the war, when he first took power in 2019, they threatened to kill him over all the guys who died in the war so far.

So you want to talk about, you know, sunk cost fallacy. After all that they have sacrificed, he's going to sell them out now? Like, he has reason to flee home to the Brookings Institution after that, man. They could have his ass. So...

So you want to talk about, you know, sunk cost fallacy. After all that they have sacrificed, he's going to sell them out now? Like, he has reason to flee home to the Brookings Institution after that, man. They could have his ass. So...