Scott Lucas

Now, the Trump folks could go back to the Iranians and say, OK, we'll take the five or we'll take maybe five to ten years.

The problem for the Trump people on that very logical way to resume the talks, compromise on the nuclear program, is that it starts to look like the 2015 nuclear agreement.

And Donald Trump ripped up that agreement in 2015 because Barack Obama was the man who was behind it.

So how do we get to a position of compromise without Trump losing face?

Absolutely.

And the oil price is only one part of it.

And in fact, the Brent price last night...

amidst all the uncertainty over the Iran-Caesars of ships, was actually up to about 105.

And it's pulled back a bit, as you mentioned today.

So any further instability, it can spike again.

Well, what does that mean?

The first thing it means is it's pressure on the Trump folks domestically because it raises the price of gasoline, and that undercuts inflation.

their legitimacy on the number one issue for Americans, which is the economy and inflation.

But it's not just oil, David.

Remember, gas production has been significantly affected by the Iranian attacks.

Qatar's production is down 17% for the indefinite future.

So that's going to be a longer-term effect that Trump can't get away from.

And then, of course, it's affecting things, as we know in Ireland, such fertilizers.

So that's going to affect the American agricultural sector.

As we get closer and closer to the midterms in November, that domestic pressure is going to start to weigh more heavily on the Trump folks.