US and Iran remain in blockade stalemate as President Trump says there’s no time pressure on ending war

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Today with David McCullagh 11 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 4 months ago

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What recent events have escalated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz?

David McCullagh 0:01

Next, though, as you were hearing on the bulletin, chaos in the world's most critical energy choke point again this morning, just hours after US President Donald Trump extended a fragile ceasefire. Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked three commercial vessels and detained the crews of two of them in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is now doubling down, calling a reopening of the narrow waterway impossible. as long as the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. Are we on the brink of an escalation, or is this just the reality of modern brinkmanship? With more on this, I'm joined by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute in UCD. Morning, Scott.

How is the US maintaining its blockade on Iranian ports?

David McCullagh 0:43

Good morning, David. This is looking dicey. President Trump says the U.S. will maintain its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran says that that prevents them from reopening the strait. Stay with me.

Scott Lucas 0:58

Yeah, I think we're in sort of a limbo because we get developments that you've referred to. So earlier this week, the Americans tried to show their muscle by seizing an Iranian ship and its crew.

What actions has Iran taken in response to the US blockade?

Scott Lucas 1:11

They, of course, are trying to blockade all traffic to and from Iranian ports, although that's only partially successful. But then you get Iran really showing its control of the Strait of Hormuz despite that American blockade with, as you mentioned, those attacks on three ships, and then I think significantly seizing two of them. One of them had a Panama flag. One of them a Liberian flag. But to show you the extent of Iran's continuing to control the Strait despite all this U.S. military buildup, When the White House was asked about this last night, whether Iran had broken the ceasefire that was unilaterally extended by Donald Trump only hours earlier, the White House said Donald Trump is not taking any action because these are not US or Israeli vessels.

Scott Lucas 1:58

Well, of course, the vast majority of vessels that have been stuck in the Strait of Hormuz now for eight weeks are not US or Israeli. They are under the flags of many different countries. So in effect, whether or not the White House meant this They effectively said, look, if Iran continues to seize ships, well, that's going to be what happens as long as they don't have a U.S. or Israeli flag above them.

David McCullagh 2:22

President Trump seems to want the negotiations to resume. That's why he's extended the ceasefire. But why didn't he lift the blockade at the same time?

What are the implications of the US-Iran blockade stalemate?

David McCullagh 2:30

Because that seems to be the sticking point that's prevented the talks going ahead.

Scott Lucas 2:34

Because the Americans are stuck here. What the Trump folks have wanted for eight weeks has been regime surrender to give in to their demands on the nuclear program, the missile program, Iran's relations in the Middle East, as well as control of the Strait of Hormuz. And the Iranians have said flat out no. Now, if the U.S. lifts its blockade – then that's its leverage to try to get Iranian concessions in the talks. Even as you mentioned, it's preventing the talks from resuming. But there's a wider development here, David. I'm not sure everyone has clocked on to. Up until yesterday, I was saying, look, the Americans had two choices. And that is either they continue in talks with the Iranians or they put ground troops back in.

Scott Lucas 3:15

And it looks like the Trump folks are backing away from any ground operations. They're now opening up a third option, though. Which is, all right, we're going to conduct economic warfare against the Iranians to force them to surrender.

How does the Trump administration plan to handle negotiations with Iran?

Scott Lucas 3:29

So if we blockade these Iranian ports, they'll say, oh, it will deprive Iran of $500 million a day. Iran will no longer be able to finance basic public services, will no longer be able to fund the government, and it will break down. Two problems with that. One is Iran's been under 47 years of sanctions of varying degrees, especially heavy sanctions since 2018, and the leadership still hasn't buckled. Secondly, the Trump folks have contradicted themselves because only a few weeks ago, rather than imposing more economic pressure, they lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil.