Scott Lucas
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Sorry to tip off my partiality here.
But I think Trump is actually shielded now because of his personal attorneys who head up the Justice Department and who have struck this deal where he can no longer be – well, not struck, they imposed this arrangement where he can not be audited or investigated in perpetuity.
I think what happens more broadly politically is sort of –
his demise by a thousand cuts.
And that is that the fundamental in the United States is still the economy.
And with the economy not doing well, with inflation going up, especially with gasoline prices going up, given what's happened with the war in Iran, with the labor market in poor shape, with consumer confidence at its lowest point in history.
or at least since we measured it, I think what you get are Republicans who will not defy him on one single big piece of legislation or one single big vote, but they'll have signals, as they have done in the past few weeks, on smaller pieces or smaller steps that have taken place that says, look, we need to protect our political future, and our political future is no longer protected by being part of the Trumpism.
Let's just put the facts out there for not just that listener, but for others.
And that is that Russia lost territory in Ukraine in April and in May.
It's the first loss of territory it's had in Ukraine since 2023.
It has not made a significant advance on the front lines this year.
in the east or in the south.
Meanwhile, you have Ukraine's counterattacks, which have struck oil facilities, which have struck ports, which have struck terminals, which have struck electronics facilities, chemical plants, and have struck Russian military positions.
On top of that, the Russian economy has actually declined.
It recorded a minus 0.2% loss in GDP.
In the first quarter of this year, that's the first loss it's had since 2023.
It has now imposed gasoline rationing in parts of the country.
Its oil revenues were down by half earlier this year.
They've gotten a bit of a pass because of U.S.
sanctions waivers.