How likely is it that hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East will cease ?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show. With Timber Living Log Cabins. Saturday and Sunday from 10am. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts. Now, it's been a week where both the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine offered both horror as attacks continue and hope as there's more talk of ceasefires and talks about talks in both conflicts. To make sense of what may be happening and to talk about the role that U.S. President Trump wants to play, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, professor and political analyst at the Clinton Institute at UCD. Scott, good morning and welcome.
Very good morning to you, Pat.
Now, it's interesting that Ukraine is back in the news after President Zelensky wrote that open letter to President Putin, who instantly dismissed it. But it did have an effect.
What recent developments have occurred in the Ukraine conflict?
Oh, I think it had an effect in terms of it exposed how rattled the Kremlin is. Because just before the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which is one of the showpieces of the year for the Kremlin, Ukraine had carried out strikes on the St. Petersburg oil terminal, damaging it, and on a nearby naval facility, badly damaging a warship. So Putin was supposed to use this talk on Friday to talk about how they're doing so well, even though they're not in this 51-month full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to talk about how the stories of the Russian economy are doing poorly or wrong. And Ukraine had actually exposed that not only is it resisting the Ukrainian attacks, it's moving from resistance to a bit of strength.
But at the same time, Pat, I think it's important to emphasize that Zelensky's letter, because he knew that Putin would not accept face-to-face talks, was to seize the diplomatic initiative. He's playing back to an audience, including the United States, saying, look, Russia's not serious about ending this invasion. You know, you need to continue to give us support against what is basically Russia's ongoing effort to conquer us.
Trump must know this. He must be told by his people, even though they are sycophants and may not. They may be scared of telling him the truth. But if they tell him that Putin is on the losing side at the moment in Ukraine, Trump doesn't like to be supporting losers. So he now appears to be bored with the whole Ukraine thing.
That's absolutely right, Pat, in that what you had before this escalation of Ukrainian attacks this year was that there were certain people in the Trump camp who supported the Kremlin's aims. Notably amongst them was the envoy, the real estate developer Steve Witkoff. And the worry amongst Ukraine and its defenders, especially amongst Europe, is that Ukraine When it got to the negotiating table, the Americans would effectively tell Ukraine, that's it. You've got to give up more territory. You've got to keep the rest of the country weak. What has happened now is, as you've described, as quite right is, is that the Americans have just said, oh, that's it. We're walking out. Not just Trump saying this, but Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, saying, well, it doesn't look like we're making any progress.
I think that actually clears the space for Ukraine and Europe now to say, look, you know, if the Americans are on the sidelines, we continue to take the initiative here militarily and diplomatically.
How is President Trump's role perceived in the context of the Ukraine war?
As long as the Americans don't oppose us, as long as they don't come in and support the Russians, then this gives us the space to continue to put more pressure on Moscow.
Now, let's move on to the Iran war. And, you know, we're making great progress. It's the latest diktat from President Trump. The Iranians are less optimistic about a settlement. So the question is, is anything really happening? Are they edging towards a settlement? And, you know, will the Iranians actually provide an off-ramp for Trump to save his face?
I think the easiest way to cut through both the fog of war and the fog of diplomacy, Pat, is to walk this back two weeks, which is that we had kind of reached a stalemate in the military side of the war, in that the American attacks and the Israeli attacks could not force the Iranians to surrender, that the Iranians had gotten leverage with this vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:50
2
What recent developments have occurred in the Ukraine conflict?
0:50–3:21
3
How is President Trump's role perceived in the context of the Ukraine war?
3:21–5:38
4
What impact did Zelensky's letter to Putin have on the conflict?
5:38–9:30
5
What are the implications of U.S. support for Ukraine's military efforts?
9:30–15:31