Shardul Shah
๐ค PersonAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Yeah. I mean, the observation, when we started our first growth fund, Our hypothesis was probably three to five X over three to five years, right? I'd just come out of a private equity firm, as had some of my colleagues. And so we had that mentality. And when we looked at the performance of the fund, it turned out there's a power law. There were companies that were 5, 10x plus.
Yeah. I mean, the observation, when we started our first growth fund, Our hypothesis was probably three to five X over three to five years, right? I'd just come out of a private equity firm, as had some of my colleagues. And so we had that mentality. And when we looked at the performance of the fund, it turned out there's a power law. There were companies that were 5, 10x plus.
Yeah. I mean, the observation, when we started our first growth fund, Our hypothesis was probably three to five X over three to five years, right? I'd just come out of a private equity firm, as had some of my colleagues. And so we had that mentality. And when we looked at the performance of the fund, it turned out there's a power law. There were companies that were 5, 10x plus.
There were very few companies that were actually 3 to 5x over 3 to 5 years. And so we kind of accepted the fact that we're not value investors. We're venture investors at growth stages. We're driven by high conviction. And as a consequence, when we're building our investment cases at growth, we never, it's like, it's super dangerous, I think, to say there's a safe 2x. There's no such thing.
There were very few companies that were actually 3 to 5x over 3 to 5 years. And so we kind of accepted the fact that we're not value investors. We're venture investors at growth stages. We're driven by high conviction. And as a consequence, when we're building our investment cases at growth, we never, it's like, it's super dangerous, I think, to say there's a safe 2x. There's no such thing.
There were very few companies that were actually 3 to 5x over 3 to 5 years. And so we kind of accepted the fact that we're not value investors. We're venture investors at growth stages. We're driven by high conviction. And as a consequence, when we're building our investment cases at growth, we never, it's like, it's super dangerous, I think, to say there's a safe 2x. There's no such thing.
And you alluded to this with the memory of all the activity from 2021. There's no such thing as a safe 2x. And so what we're looking for is definitely 5x plus upside, even at growth investments at late stages at high prices.
And you alluded to this with the memory of all the activity from 2021. There's no such thing as a safe 2x. And so what we're looking for is definitely 5x plus upside, even at growth investments at late stages at high prices.
And you alluded to this with the memory of all the activity from 2021. There's no such thing as a safe 2x. And so what we're looking for is definitely 5x plus upside, even at growth investments at late stages at high prices.
I don't know why we're talking about averages. None of us are in the business of mean reversion. If we're making a Series B investment, it's by exception, like Elastic, Series B investment, terrific return, Confluent, Series B investment, terrific return, and the list goes on. So
I don't know why we're talking about averages. None of us are in the business of mean reversion. If we're making a Series B investment, it's by exception, like Elastic, Series B investment, terrific return, Confluent, Series B investment, terrific return, and the list goes on. So
I don't know why we're talking about averages. None of us are in the business of mean reversion. If we're making a Series B investment, it's by exception, like Elastic, Series B investment, terrific return, Confluent, Series B investment, terrific return, and the list goes on. So
No, it's not. I mean, we're mixing two time horizons, right? Like when you invest is not when you exit. So the multiples may evolve and change. It turns out the best companies get premium multiples, and again, are above the average multiples that you might be alluding to with multiples coming down. Second, the best companies that are category defining are going to be far more significant.
No, it's not. I mean, we're mixing two time horizons, right? Like when you invest is not when you exit. So the multiples may evolve and change. It turns out the best companies get premium multiples, and again, are above the average multiples that you might be alluding to with multiples coming down. Second, the best companies that are category defining are going to be far more significant.
No, it's not. I mean, we're mixing two time horizons, right? Like when you invest is not when you exit. So the multiples may evolve and change. It turns out the best companies get premium multiples, and again, are above the average multiples that you might be alluding to with multiples coming down. Second, the best companies that are category defining are going to be far more significant.
And so you can afford to pay up. If you look at the averages, I hear you. But from my perspective, there's no reason to look at the averages.
And so you can afford to pay up. If you look at the averages, I hear you. But from my perspective, there's no reason to look at the averages.
And so you can afford to pay up. If you look at the averages, I hear you. But from my perspective, there's no reason to look at the averages.
What's the hardest thing? It's kind of identifying if you're delusional or you have conviction. And sometimes it can feel like a thin line when you have such deep conviction. In what ways can you be delusional? You can be lazy. If you skip the details, if you don't do the work, if you stop asking questions and are surprised by new information, those are symptoms of being delusional.
What's the hardest thing? It's kind of identifying if you're delusional or you have conviction. And sometimes it can feel like a thin line when you have such deep conviction. In what ways can you be delusional? You can be lazy. If you skip the details, if you don't do the work, if you stop asking questions and are surprised by new information, those are symptoms of being delusional.