Shelley Rigger

So, you know, where is the growth in the global economy?

It's in tech.

It's in specifically the whole network of companies

products and services surrounding artificial intelligence.

If we pull the rug out from under artificial intelligence, what's the growth engine?

Right.

It's at the moment converging with another huge underappreciated vulnerability, which is the Strait of Hormuz.

Well, I truly believe that the sort of immediate convergence is coincidental, right?

Taiwan was going to be where it was, and then the U.S.

decided to go to war with Iran, not really anticipating that Iran had the power to close the Strait of Hormuz and plunge the world into an energy-related recession.

But I think we always talk about interdependence and people argue, scholars argue, does globalization, interdependence, do these forces promote peace or not?

Because the theory goes that they do.

And I think what we see is if we ignore peace, we will feel the effects of having allowed ourselves to become so interdependent.

So they don't prevent conflict.

The fact that everybody depends on the Strait of Hormuz for their energy didn't stop Trump from going to war, but we are all paying a much higher price than we would be paying for this war.

if this dimension were not there.

And I think it's similar with respect to Taiwan.

I do think that Taiwan's importance in the global economy is a factor in China's restraint so far.

in taking military action against Taiwan, but that doesn't mean it's going to work forever.

But when and if something happens in the Taiwan Strait, we will all feel the effects of that interdependence much more strongly than we would if we had not created these tech supply chains that chase quality and price across every global boundary.