Sholto Douglas

I think it's very likely in two, but it seems almost over-determined in five.

And on the grand scheme of things, those are kind of irrelevant timeframes.

It's the same either way.

completely changes the world over the next decade.

And if we don't have the right policies in place for that, then you end up actually with almost, in some respects, a fundamentally worse world.

Because the thing that these models get good at by default is software engineering and computer-using agents and this kind of stuff.

And then we will need to put in extra effort to put them in the loops where

they help us with scientific research, or we have the right robotics such that we actually experience an increase in material quality of life.

So that's worth thinking about.

If you're in the perspective of, I'm a country.

What should I be doing or thinking about?

Plan for the case where white collar work is automatable.

And then consider what does that mean for your economy and what you should be doing to prepare policy.

So I think one very important point is that let's say this scenario turns out true.

Then compute becomes the most valuable resource in the world.

Like the sort of GDP of your economy is dramatically affected by how much compute you can deploy towards the sort of organizations within your country.

And so having some, you know,

guaranteed amount of compute, I think, will actually be quite important.

So getting ahead of investments in data centers and this kind of stuff on the condition that companies in your country have to be allowed to use that compute.

Not necessarily for training, but even just for inference.