Sholto Douglas

If you had...

all mocap of everyone's actions as they were going about their daily lives for some reasonable fraction of the human population, robotics is also close to solved.

Like, on track to be solved at the same rate that software engineering is on track to be solved.

So this is only like...

This vision is only a sort of decade-long section, but it's still a pretty terrible decade.

Imagine the world where people have lost their jobs.

You haven't yet got novel biological research that means people's quality of life is dramatically better.

You don't yet have material abundance because you haven't actually been able to action the physical world in the necessary way.

You can't build dramatically more because building dramatically more takes robots, basically.

And people's like main comparative advantage is as fantastic robots is like a shocking, shocking world.

And a decade or two on, the world is fantastic.

Robotics is solved, and you start to get radical abundance, basically, provided that you have all the policies set up necessary to permit building.

You end up with that same change from the before and after photos of Shanghai,

We're like 20 years on.

It's like this dramatically transformed city.

A lot of places in the world probably end up like that over that two-decade period.

But we need to make sure, one, do our best to estimate, is this actually what is on track to happen?

like build sweet bench but for all the other forms of white-collar work and measure and track that's a great thing that government should be doing by the way is like trying to break down the sort of functions of their economy into measurable tasks and Figuring out where what does the curve actually look like for that because they might be a bit shocked by the progress there you know, there's no sweet bench for tax like tax eval and Then

I don't have all the answers here, but figuring out a way to share the proceeds of this economy broadly across people, or invest heavily in robotics and collecting data so that we get robotics faster, we get material abundance faster, invest in biological research that we get all that faster.

Basically try and pull forward the radical upside, because otherwise you have a pretty dark section.