Simon Belanger

aren't going in a positive direction ever again.

And eventually, the US will burn through or at least be less impactful with their release of strategic petroleum reserves unless they are willing to spend a ton more and buy more reserves, which is another reason why the bond market might be saying, hey, the US is going to have to spend a ton of money.

So let's just, again, let's pay nothing for these bonds so we can get a high yield because they have to use the debt.

That's kind of my thesis there.

And that eventually leads to oil prices, sustained inflation, consumer gets destroyed, and we're in a recession by, I originally said end of the year.

I still kind of feel like, well, we could see that happen by the end of the year.

You could be in the first quarter of a recession by the end of the year in the US.

Canada's in a technical recession, but it's very mild.

So I don't even know if that's worth using, right?

I think it was this morning.

Right.

And that there's a ceasefire.

Yeah.

For 60 days.

We're going to, yeah, we're going to do some studies on a plan.

Well, it's funny.

Like, I think we kind of made this joke the other day, like when we were on, um, with Zayla from, uh, on the, when we were on the BMO podcast where we were saying like, you know, we do, we talk so much about macro, but like, it feels like it's irrelevant to your world right now because like.

You can give the most bearish macro news and the market still rips.

In my world, it's a little different because people buy houses with credit and uncertainty in the macro has led to rate uncertainty and also just banks pricing in more risk.

So they're increasing their spreads a little bit.