New Fed Chair, Loonie Slides & Canada’s Population Keeps Falling

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The Canadian Investor 50 min 3 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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What are the implications of the new Fed Chair's policies?

Brayden Dennis 0:01
Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.
Dan Kent 0:12
Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle.
Brayden Dennis 0:17
If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time.
Simon Belanger 0:31
Let's do this. Welcome back to weekly. We missed a week, but weekly Canadian macro investor. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's, it was, it was nice though. I mean, I mean, I guess, I mean, people are listening to the show because a couple of people reached out to me and they're like, what are you guys still doing this? And I was like, no, sorry. We just took a week off. But anyway, we. On a weekly basis, we talk about macro and the way that it interacts with, I think, Simone's world, which is more on the equity side and my world, which is more on the real estate side and real estate being particularly exposed to interest rates. So that's kind of what I pay a lot of attention to. I mean, even last week, we had a lot to talk about, but then this week, I think there's even more, right?
Simon Belanger 1:11
So you saw ECB hike last week. We saw, who else? Bank of Japan. Bank of Japan.
Yeah. Yeah.
Simon Belanger 1:19
And, you know, it's funny. I mean, Warsh basically- Warsh, yeah. Yeah, Warsh basically signaled that they probably will end up hiking, which the market has sort of been pricing in. It's just funny, right? Like, I don't know. Like, I think they'll do it. And then I think you have the, in Canada, you have the Canadian dollar. I mean, the US dollar is obviously strong ahead of the market trying to price in that they'll hike. And the Canadian dollar probably signaling that the Bank of Canada won't be able to follow in that. I don't know. Was your assessment the same as mine? Like, does that seem to be kind of what's going on?
Brayden Dennis 1:49
Yeah, I think, well, for the Canadian dollar, I think that would be it. And then you factor that in with the Iran memorandum of agreement with the U.S., lower oil prices. So you have that kind of double whammy in the Canadian dollar. And then I'll just share here, obviously, we've shown this quite a bit, but the CME Fed funds rate, now they're really pricing it. The rate guide really soon, essentially almost guaranteed now in the September meeting. Yeah. So that's a bit of a change. I was a bit surprised, but did you listen to the press conference from Warsh? It was pretty good.
Simon Belanger 2:27
As much as I could, yeah. Yeah, no, it was good. It's just funny, right? Because everybody was sort of talking about how Trump would install him to get cuts, and now we're talking immediately about hikes, right?
Yeah.
Brayden Dennis 2:39
Yeah, I mean, he had some good lines. I mean, my biggest takeaway is that he's not afraid of changes. So he said they'd be doing like five task force, one to look at communication. So people might think, oh, why would they look at that? But the way the Fed talks, those press conference, Jerome Powell, and even before him, like they would put a lot of emphasis on communicating with the markets, which often just leaded the markets to be confused, to be honest. I think for the most part, they were confused too, like not- Not that we're any better than them, but it's just they, yeah, the guidance is not necessarily a good thing. And he actually decided not to provide any guidance. So the dot plot that usually are given by FOMC members, he decided to actually not do it.
Brayden Dennis 3:25
So it kind of shows in terms of what he thinks for communication standpoint, he said, they'll be press conference, but they'll only be some if there's something useful to communicate. So they will just won't, talk to talk. They'll be re-examining the balance sheet. So just examine how the Fed's balance sheet and how large it is and should be over time. So they want to be examining that too. The data part, and I know, I don't know if you saw that. So really, he talked about a lot of the data and whether that the data that the Fed has been looking at to make its decisions, the FOMC, if it's the right data or not.

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