Sir Niall Ferguson

The obvious sources of opposition, say Senate Republicans with more mainstream views on trade and national security, they're very quiet, very quiet indeed.

They'll get louder if things look like they're going badly wrong economically.

And at some point, the dread word midterm will be heard, and people will start pointing out that if this thing doesn't turn around in time, then Republicans will lose at least one of the chambers of Congress.

So

American politics is still running in a normal way, despite what you might think if you follow it in The Guardian newspaper.

Absolutely, yeah.

And the Supreme Court has already fired the first shot across Trump's bows.

They're going to get some wins, I suspect, in the courts, but they will also be handed some defeats.

So the other thing I'd add is that the administration is still taking shape.

The whole process of confirming nominees is so extraordinarily protracted that there are plenty of key jobs that haven't yet been filled.

There'll be some turnover.

He's Trump.

He's going to fire somebody at some point this year.

And that too will have its consequences.

So...

The one thing you know about Trump from his first presidency is that he can course correct.

He likes to open really strongly.

That's all in the art of the deal.

See what the other side does.

And if it doesn't really go anywhere, he's perfectly capable of declaring victory or claiming a win and retreating.