Sir Niall Ferguson

which Gideon Rashman called the sort of age of empire, that this system is unstable as the last of the age of empires was.

Now, key point, history is not a deterministic system, and we can't sit here and project with nice straight lines how we get from liberal international order to 1984 or World War III.

There's a scenario.

in which Trump turns out to be a very stable genius, and it all works out much better than you or I expect.

For example, the counterparties fold in the trade war.

They just all fold, and we end up with Bob Lighthizer's fairer trade.

There's a scenario in which we underestimated Elon.

He actually does fix it.

the federal government, and it gets more efficient and it costs less money.

There's a scenario where the interest rates come down and that actually ultimately delivers something meaningful to households.

And the stock market only corrects a little and then it's all the way back up because deregulation is real, etc.

It's always a mistake to be too negative about the United States.

One always has to remember its innate advantages over everybody else.

Absolutely.

You get to attract all the talent, give it money.

It does amazing things.

Elon is only one of many.

And then the other side is like not that strong.

What if the Russians just overdo it?

What if the whole system that Putin's built is actually very fragile?