Skanda Amarnath

And at a time when financial conditions, at a first cut, pretty supportive.

The interest rate currently is roughly around neutral, modestly restrictive.

And at the same, the labor market's not showing the same downside risk.

We're moving away from the left tail.

Inflation has got some right tail properties.

I do think it's largely supply, but that's a hard, when you have all these things moving in the same direction of the hawkish doves debate.

They're going to go 75 to 100.

If they start to go, don't be surprised if it's three hikes in a row.

I am surprised that we saw such a big slowdown in job growth in 2025.

And it kind of stabilized on its own, right?

So that's something, that is one of those, like, object in motion stays in motion.

I think there's a lot of good reasons to take that seriously.

Like, there's a lot of information in the present you just respect.

But it did start to show stabilization.

And so we started to see that probably around, what was it, that jobs report in December, you started to see signs of, like, okay, things post-shutdown were starting to, like...

just show the kind of stability that job growth was not going to keep falling off a cliff.

And I think it's actually most interesting when you have a white collar.

So if you think about it, there's a subset of professional and business services that really matters, because it also includes things like temp help jobs and a lot of other things that are not exactly high wage.

there you are seeing a pickup.

You are seeing a pickup in job growth.