Skanda Amarnath

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But I promise after the series ends and hopefully well, we'll be back at it.

And we're usually breaking down a lot of data related to jobs and CPI and PCE and everything the Fed's tracking.

Yeah, business cycles are risk cycles.

And so the risk and the willingness to actually spend is what we should all be caring about if we're trying to think about the big macro risk, the big drawdown you want to avoid, or the big risk to your job.

To me, when you think about where's the balance sheet constraint that's going to cause this, right?

And so it could show up in corporate credit spreads.

It may be something that's... The things to me that are most likely are something where it's the willingness to spend with part of the non-tech companies on AI expenditure.

That's really what we should actually be focused on because for them, it's an expense.

And they need to see payoff on that expense at some point.

Whereas...

If it's just spending by the hyperscalers, it's all part of their moat.

It's part of how they're trying to make sure that they stay competitive.

But for the non-tech companies, are they seeing a return on their investment?

I'm sure they are seeing something, but you're obviously hearing about token expenditures and all that stuff.

So when that gets stretched, which is kind of the scenario we think about with 2000, where it was a lot of front-loading of expenditure around Y2K, at some point just got tired of it.

It's like, I don't need to keep spending more and more and more.