Skanda Amarnath

We're all wrapping every single part of markets, the economy, around this big technological and investment boom.

Go ahead, you want to take it?

Yeah, so it's basically, so there's all this spending happening domestically, but that spending could be for products that are produced outside of the US.

And so you think about like what SK Hynix produces or what like all sorts of Japanese and Korean manufacturers are producing for all your tech hardware or the energy systems behind it.

That's all stuff that's coming, that's value add, that's GDP that's really not show, like it's not US GDP, but it is US spending.

Neil, you're being too kind.

I think actually this whole, it's not really counting the GDP because it's imports, totally misses the point of what a boom is all about.

It's about the spending.

The spending is sitting on some company's balance sheet.

It's affecting their risk.

It's showing their risk appetite currently, and it might affect their risk appetite in the future.

So business cycles are risk cycles.

They're about the willingness to spend, to spend on labor, spend on capital.

And when the spending stops, that's when you get the recession.

And when we talk about recession, we're not really talking about GDP.

We're talking about whether the stock market goes down a bunch and whether you lose your job.

That's really what we're talking about.

So all of this GDP accounting stuff can really miss the point.

You have a huge volume of spending relative to the size of the economy.

It's going to sit on a bunch of balance sheets.