Spencer Aguiar

Two, I'm going to make enough bets to where even if you get some of them wrong, you're hoping that what you're building from a mathematical perspective is going to put you on the right end on enough of these situations.

So it's going to matter.

I don't want to come on here and be like, don't look at the weather.

The weather matters.

But I also think it's so baked in to a lot of the movement that it almost becomes like –

a negative in the grand scheme of it.

I rarely give this answer of going near the top of the board in situations.

I usually try to find value in golf and that comes further down the board.

And I will say this for major championships, it's one of the things that you will notice.

There's almost a stigma attached to all these events where

The general public does not believe anybody but the top names are going to win.

And a lot of times that if you are going to get drift on a board, it's going to come into that triple digit zone of a lot of those names that get pushed back 10, 20 points higher than they should be.

And I think that sportsbooks condense the top of the board into kind of unbettable ranges a lot of times to where...

you're probably going to get the winner from there but you get this heavily juiced board where there's a ton of hold percentage that you're finding and i kind of thought that was going to be the case at least a couple weeks ago and it's kind of changed for me when i built my model this go around i i kind of think scotty's going to win this golf tournament and there has been this

Scotty was 3-1 to win every golf tournament for almost the first three months of the year.

And he's underachieved in a really weird way because from a statistical perspective, I ran things for the last 24 rounds.

And the last time I came on, I talked about how I run my model longer than most people do.

I like to have that long-term outlook.

I don't want that short-term stuff that's going to –

inflate or deflate numbers on it.