Stephanie Roth

So far, it seems like in an environment where, if you looked at the ISM most recently, the commentary was, we're concerned about the Iran shock, yet business activity is okay.

And that seems to be the nature of the economy right now, is there are concerns about it, and it's a problem to some extent, but spending seems to be steady.

The credit card data are all pretty good.

Commentary from airline CEOs is quite positive.

So it doesn't seem like it's really hurting the consumer yet.

So far, it seems like an environment where, if you looked at the ISM most recently, the commentary was, we're concerned about the Iran shock, yet business activity is okay.

And that seems to be the nature of the economy right now, is there are concerns about it, and it's a problem to some extent, but spending seems to be steady.

The credit card data are all pretty good.

Commentary from airline CEOs is quite positive.

So it doesn't seem like it's really hurting the consumer yet.

So far, it seems like an environment where, if you looked at the ISM most recently, the commentary was, we're concerned about the Iran shock, yet business activity is okay.

And that seems to be the nature of the economy right now, is there are concerns about it, and it's a problem to some extent, but spending seems to be steady.

The credit card data are all pretty good.

Commentary from airline CEOs is quite positive.

So it doesn't seem like it's really hurting the consumer yet.

It is a stunning number, and last month it was stunning in the opposite direction.

I think we have to appreciate that there has been a tremendous amount of volatility.

Some of it, of course, has to do with the strikers coming back, but even if you smooth through the data, we're probably in an environment where the trend in payrolls is somewhere between 50 and 70,000.

The unemployment rate will probably bounce around between 4.3 and 4.5, and it's an economy where the labor market is largely stable.

It's not picking up significantly this month, and after having significantly weakened last month, it's probably just an environment that's stable with a lot of volatility.