Stephanie Roth

speaker
165 appearances 10 recordings 2 series first heard Dec 2025 last heard 9 Jul

Stephanie Roth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months
5 · Apr OctJan 26AprJulnow

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 10 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 5.

Appearances

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Commentary from airline CEOs is quite positive.
So it doesn't seem like it's really hurting the consumer yet.
It is a stunning number, and last month it was stunning in the opposite direction.
I think we have to appreciate that there has been a tremendous amount of volatility.
Some of it, of course, has to do with the strikers coming back, but even if you smooth through the data, we're probably in an environment where the trend in payrolls is somewhere between 50 and 70,000.
The unemployment rate will probably bounce around between 4.3 and 4.5, and it's an economy where the labor market is largely stable.
It's not picking up significantly this month, and after having significantly weakened last month, it's probably just an environment that's stable with a lot of volatility.
It is a stunning number, and last month it was stunning in the opposite direction.
I think we have to appreciate that there has been a tremendous amount of volatility.
We're probably in an environment where the trend in payrolls is somewhere between 50 and 70,000.
The unemployment rate will probably bounce around between 4.3 and 4.5, and it's an economy where the labor market is largely stable.
It's not picking up significantly this month, and after having significantly weakened last month, it's probably just an environment that's stable with a lot of volatility.
We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.
And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.
So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.
We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.
And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.
So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.
Yeah, I think it's a Fed that is comfortable with the backdrop of data, which I think is the right call.
The data seemed to be improving from here.
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