Stephanie Roth

It is a stunning number, and last month it was stunning in the opposite direction.

I think we have to appreciate that there has been a tremendous amount of volatility.

We're probably in an environment where the trend in payrolls is somewhere between 50 and 70,000.

The unemployment rate will probably bounce around between 4.3 and 4.5, and it's an economy where the labor market is largely stable.

It's not picking up significantly this month, and after having significantly weakened last month, it's probably just an environment that's stable with a lot of volatility.

We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.

And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.

So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.

We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.

And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.

So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.

Yeah, I think it's a Fed that is comfortable with the backdrop of data, which I think is the right call.

The data seemed to be improving from here.

We actually think that it will continue to get better, in which case this will certainly be the last cut under Chair Powell.

There's no more cuts under Chair Powell.

He's done.

And I think that's right.

He's fading into the sunset and just wants to avoid all of the questions that he didn't really want to answer.

Yeah, I mean, last night it was getting to be a little bit concerning when Trump made the comments regarding his comfort around the sharp drop in the dollar that we've seen.

That could also have reverberations throughout the rest of the market.