Stephen Dubner

speaker

14,303 appearances 95 recordings 4 series first heard Dec 2024 last heard 3d ago

Stephen Dubner’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 62 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 12.

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It means it should happen one in 20 times. voice-verified

If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken. voice-verified

Markets on elections are always going to make a lot of noise, but there are other important markets that are much quieter. voice-verified

MNPI stands for material non-public information. voice-verified

FDA approvals, corporate decision making, election forecasting. voice-verified

Even if you are a prediction market skeptic, you can probably see some value there, and you can see why Calci likes to talk it up. voice-verified

But here is an uncomfortable fact. voice-verified

Roughly 90% of Calci's trading volume is in one category we've barely mentioned yet. voice-verified

Can you guess which one? voice-verified

I'll give you a hint. voice-verified

It's the kind of trading that is making DraftKings and FanDuel nervous. voice-verified

That's coming up after the break. voice-verified

This is Free Comics Radio and I'm Steven Dubner. voice-verified

Pretty much every single human, you, me, anyone else you can think of. voice-verified

is making predictions all the time about everything. voice-verified

It's just that we're not very systematic or accurate, and we are rarely held to account if our predictions turn out to be wrong. voice-verified

The whole point of a prediction market, meanwhile, voice-verified

again is Tarik Mansor CE. voice-verified

I understand you don't want to talk about how much Calci and you are worth, but this plainly is a lucrative enterprise. voice-verified

Can you explain how Calcians are? voice-verified

Showing 161–180 of 14,303 · page 9 of 716