Stephen Fowler

So between wins and losses of their own and wins and losses of Republicans, they need a net gain of four.

And what about the House?

Well, the House, you know, it's a razor thin majority for Republicans right now.

You know, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats before they're looking at being back in the minority.

And that goes a lot more with the national mood.

Republicans have had a huge advantage because of gerrymandering over the years where a lot of the districts in the country lean a little bit more toward the right.

But that gap has actually been closing in recent years.

So that gap is not quite as big, but we have fewer and fewer competitive districts.

So the universe of competitive seats is smaller than it ever has been.

But long story short, things are starting to tip in Democrats direction because midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president.

Trump has had a really bad month.

He's been under.

40% for his job approval rating in our NPR PBS News Marist poll since November.

Affordability still a big issue in the country.

People feeling like Trump is not focused on that as much as he should be.

That has a tendency to depress the base.

So you don't get as many people to turn out to vote.

And Republicans have had issues turning out conservatives when Trump's not on the ballot.

And independents are lining up with Democrats on almost every issue in very strong ways.

So that makes it really hard when in those swing districts,