Stephen Fowler

Independence are so important.

And they're, you know, Trump is really proving toxic to independence.

Although I'd say running for governor is often a better leaping off point to run for president than being a senator.

The old joke in Washington is that senators wake up in the morning and look at themselves and see a potential president, but they have far less success often running.

than governors do given that executive experience.

But I do think that when it comes to these retirements, which party is retiring more can be a weather vane, a bellwether for what happens.

in the midterm elections.

Also, open seats, seats where there's no incumbent, certainly opens up the possibility of winning a little bit more because the incumbency rates are just so high.

Entrenched name identification doesn't cost as much money because you don't have to figure out who this person is, and people just like to vote for the person who they've voted for previously.

So an open seat, far more expensive for the party in power, and that can make it really difficult.

The other obvious big thing that we've been talking about all year, and I mentioned affordability, the economic outlook is just bleak.

I mean, there was a Pew Research Center poll that was out last week that found 72% of people rated the economy as fair or poor.

Plurality, 38% said that they expect the economy to get worse in the next year.

52% to 28% margin respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse than better.

So if an election year like this, if midterm elections often are referenda on the president himself and the big issue is the economy, people are saying the economy is not great and Trump is to blame.

Yeah.

And things generally do tip in one direction in these elections.

So if you're a Republican thinking about whether or not you should stick around, if you should retire or not, you sort of take a look at this entire landscape of things and

and all of the pressure that's put on them.

Because when you talk to people who cover Capitol Hill, they're constantly raising money.