Stephen Koukoulas

As you said, the rate hikes have been having an impact and other than petrol, we're not spending as much in other parts of the economy.

It's extremely busy.

So we've got the data flow, RBA, updated forecasts.

We've got the budget, which I think is going to be big.

I know everyone says, oh, this is the most important budget in a generation.

I think this one actually is, or not a generation, but in a decade at least anyway, that we've got a budget and the Treasurer realises that he's got to

you know, deliver a bit of tough love through the budget settings.

And as we said just a moment ago, the NDIS cuts that are in the offing, I think will be symptomatic of a lot of other small amendments to tax policy, you know, maybe negative gearing, maybe capital gains tax concessions.

So there will be a tightening in the budget coming up next week, which will, you know, will set the scene for the economy in the second half of the year.

It is, and what you've just captured there is the dilemma that we economists, the Reserve Bank, a lot of businesses, and as you mentioned, the Treasury, Jim Chalmers, as he's framing his budget, are all grappling with, and that is the inflation result this week, which will confirm that leap in inflation.

At the same time that we've seen in recent weeks, a collapse in consumer sentiment, a decline in business confidence.

And as you touched on very, very briefly, this dilemma, and Andrew Houser, the RBA deputy governor, mentioned it about 10 days ago when he said it's the worst nightmare for central banks.

higher inflation and higher unemployment.

The Sophie's choice of what you choose when you're the central bank.

Do you hike rates to get inflation back under control, but you have as a consequence very high unemployment?

Or do you say, well, let's keep interest rates a little bit less tight

So inflation's high, but you have the benefit of slightly lower unemployment.

And that's exactly what we are all grappling with.

And when you've got that volatility in the oil price, gosh, even in the last few days, you know, the oil price is all over the place, depending on what Mr. Trump says and what the Iranians do in the Straits of Hormuz.

It's sort of like an incredibly...