Stephen Koukoulas

And as you said, 4.5%.

Why that is important is that it's actually increased by 0.4 points in the last three months.

Yeah, we've been stuck at that low four range for quite a while.

Now it's four and a half.

The RBA is

has a dual mandate, so it's got to fight inflation.

Yes, unambiguously the case, but it's also now got to keep an eagle eye on the unemployment rate.

So this certainly goes into the category of leaning very heavily against further rate hikes.

Obviously, we need to see a lot more data.

Is this a blip?

Is this a one-off?

What happens to the inflation numbers?

These sorts of things before we can be certain.

But certainly the way the markets reacted last week was to effectively fully price out a June rate hike and to pare back future rate hikes beyond that.

That's a great question.

It's one of the ones why I suspect the people were dissenting on rate hikes at the RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting.

They're saying, well, hang on, let's wait for the effect to kick into the economy.

Now, normally, we know there's a lag of six to 12 months.

It depends a little bit what else is happening in the economy, but let's say it's the shorter end of that, six months.

So the February rate hike hasn't had its full effect yet.