Stephen Miran

For me, in my mind, the right counterfactual is non-import goods.

And that's why the way that I've looked at it is to compare the prices of import-intensive core goods to overall core goods.

And I would think that if tariffs are driving inflation,

Import-intensive core goods would inflate at a materially higher rate than overall core goods, and that is just not the case.

That is not what you see in the data.

That's the study that I did when I was the CEA chairman, and I asked the Fed staff to replicate it, and they found that when you use this counterfactual, you get the same outcome.

So the question is, what's the choice of the counterfactual?

And that drives the inference for me.

The other counterfactual that I think is appropriate to use is to say, are core goods in the United States inflating at a faster rate, at a noticeably faster rate, or markedly different trend than core goods in other countries?

And again, when I run that experiment, I see no discernible substantial difference that would make me think that core goods inflation in the United States had broken away from core goods inflation globally.

And so for me, I think that there's a question of how do you think about these things?

And I think everyone was thinking about it one way, and I think about it a different way.

And I view my job as bringing in new and interesting ideas to try and get people to think about things.

Well, I am also of New York and of Harvard University.

I get that.

And, you know, have no trouble saying my view even when it's wildly out of consensus.

And, you know, speaking my mind, as long as I believe what I'm saying, I have no problem sort of speaking my mind and getting my thoughts out there.

So, two things there.

One, last year I was an opponent of the Federal Reserve cutting rates because I thought that neutral was higher and that therefore the Fed was not as restrictive as they thought that they were.

And therefore I viewed the accommodation being provided as inappropriate.