Stephen Miran

a lot of my colleagues, again, is thinking that goods inflation is not being driven by tariffs.

I don't see tariffs being driven by goods inflation.

I see goods inflation, I'm not sure what's driving it.

I listed a few possibilities in the speech in December.

I think the jury's still out on that one.

But if I end up being right on shelter, if I end up being right on shelter, and Goldman ends up being right on shelter, and I end up being wrong on tariffs and everybody else is right on tariffs, then we're going to undershoot our target.

Two-sided risk is back.

And I think that people haven't really internalized that yet.

And I think it's important to appreciate that.

Now, where would I be wrong?

Because so much of my disinflation forecast is based upon shelter.

I'm going to be wrong if market rents pick up again.

No, as I said before, unemployment is somewhat above where I view the national rate.

And so it's 60 basis points, a million people of unnecessary unemployment that we could reduce by having a more appropriate policy stance.

Yeah, I would absolutely adjust my projection.

So if you look at the September SEP, I was 50 basis points higher than I was in the December SEP.

Part of the reason why I adjusted my dot down by 50 basis points is because the labor market didn't perform per my expectations that I had in September and because inflation actually outperformed to the downside.

So it was appropriate to adjust my dot down.

And then on top of that, we had the two type policies I described.

So if the data come in a little bit better, yeah, of course I'm going to adjust my expectation.