Stephen Miran

Yeah.

So as I said before, traditionally, you would look through an oil price shock like this, which means that my policy outlook from before is unchanged.

And my policy outlook from before would be gradual cuts of interest rates.

I had about six cuts for the year at the last SEP in December.

I reduced that to four cuts for the year in response to the inflation data that we received between the two projection periods.

So I'm maintaining my outlook that I had-

You just said the outlook doesn't change, Governor.

Well, the balance of risk does change, but I think it's actually changed on both sides equally.

The inflation risks have got a little more concerning, but the unemployment risks have gotten more concerning, too, because the negative supply shock that is the oil price is also a negative demand shock.

You're taking money out of goods and services that are not energy that would have been spent on those goods and services anyway.

And I view the labor market as continuing its gradual softening trend of the last three years.

That trend has been in place for three years.

I've seen nothing that would convince me the trend has stopped.

That's a very powerful medium-term trend that's been in place for several years now.

And taking money out of goods and services that's not energy to devote to higher energy prices is exactly the type of thing that worries me that that trend might accelerate.

So the balance of risk changed, but I think it got worse on both sides.

I don't think it changed asymmetrically.

Thanks for having me back.

It's good to see you again.

Look, as you say, my term expires over the weekend.