Stephen Miran

I will say my forecast, as I said before, is predicated upon shelter inflation.

And shelter is a weird thing where market rents give us a window into the path of measured inflation that's very different than other sections of the inflation index.

We know that market rents, a weighted average of single-family, multi-family market rents, have been growing at a 1% rate for two years now.

We know that average tenant rents have caught up to new tenant rents.

There are statistically mechanical relationships that give you a lot of confidence that measured shelter inflation is going to come down a lot.

You don't have that type of confidence when you're talking about goods.

I said before, I don't know what's driving goods inflation.

I don't have this forecast that goods inflation is going to come down because it's just driven by tariffs that my colleagues seem to have.

I don't have that type of confidence on areas of the index that I think are much more difficult to understand.

Shelter is a mechanical thing from market rents to measured inflation.

And therefore, it's in my mind appropriate to have that high degree of confidence.

And to Lisa's point, where would I be wrong?

If the market rents pick up again.

If the market rents pick up, then I'm going to say my mechanical pass-through from market rents into measured shelter inflation is getting invalidated, and we'll see that.

Yeah, so this is an area where I'd want to not jump to conclusions because I'd want to sort of try and analyze it very carefully and think about what the market is saying, think about what the economy is doing.

And if it's the case that you cut rates and you sort of get a burst of activity in some sector of the economy that's not housing and that ends up crowding out housing, then you wouldn't really mind.

You're focused on aggregates.

You're focused on aggregate inflation.

You're focused on aggregate unemployment, right?

If it looks like you cut rates and the bond market is giving you a very clear signal, and I'm not just talking about trading behavior for a week, I'm talking about a very clear signal over the course of a period of time that it's not the right move, then I think, yeah, you want to take that signal and you want to think about what's the market telling me that I missed?