Steven Pinker

And that goes back to John Maynard Keynes, who in the 1920s compared speculative investing, so this is investing not because of the return that you expect on the asset, that is the profits that the manufacturer will make selling widgets, or the farmer selling food, but you think you can unload the security at a profit on someone else.

He said it's like a beauty contest where instead of picking the prettiest face, the object is to pick the face that the most other people pick,

where they're picking the face with the same goal, that is, trying to figure out what everyone else is picking.

So it's sometimes called a Keynesian beauty contest.

Don't we have that in primaries with elections?

And in elections are Keynesian beauty contests.

That is, in a primary election, there might be a field of a dozen candidates

And no one wants to waste their vote in just deciding who's going to come in at seventh place as opposed to eighth place.

That's why, yes, that's exactly what it's trying to resolve.

And so people are hyper aware for any signs that someone has momentum, that they're in the lead because they want to vote

to determine who comes in first, not who comes in sixth.

Right, I don't want to waste a vote.

That's what they say.

I don't want to waste a vote.

And so during the coverage, any various trivial gaffes and lapses or boosts can sometimes shoot a candidate to the top or sink their candidacy.

Like when a few years ago when Howard Dean was running for president.

And everyone knew you can't vote for Dean now because his victory scream means that everyone knew that he had a silly victory scream.

And that ended his candidacy.

Can you imagine?

Seriously?