Steven

And they need to do something with those dollars. They have to invest them somewhere. And historically, that's been in treasury bonds, which lowered our interest rates. And that was good for everybody.

And they need to do something with those dollars. They have to invest them somewhere. And historically, that's been in treasury bonds, which lowered our interest rates. And that was good for everybody.

It's debt that the government issues from the federal government. So it's a bond. You're loaning money to the government. And they're promising to repay you plus interest.

It's debt that the government issues from the federal government. So it's a bond. You're loaning money to the government. And they're promising to repay you plus interest.

Less trust and also less need to do it because they don't have as many dollars that they need to invest.

Less trust and also less need to do it because they don't have as many dollars that they need to invest.

It's interesting when people point like the odds of recession at 45% because they can't be wrong. Like if there isn't a recession, they'd be like, yeah, we said it was 45%. We didn't say it was going to happen. So my answer if you said are we heading for a recession would always be yes. If you asked me a year ago, if you asked me five years ago, like historically there's a recession.

It's interesting when people point like the odds of recession at 45% because they can't be wrong. Like if there isn't a recession, they'd be like, yeah, we said it was 45%. We didn't say it was going to happen. So my answer if you said are we heading for a recession would always be yes. If you asked me a year ago, if you asked me five years ago, like historically there's a recession.

In modern times, it's been every four to five years that it's occurred. And so we shouldn't pretend that when they happen, that they're this crazy out of the blue thing. It's an inevitable feature that you're always going to have recessions. But is this going to cause it?

In modern times, it's been every four to five years that it's occurred. And so we shouldn't pretend that when they happen, that they're this crazy out of the blue thing. It's an inevitable feature that you're always going to have recessions. But is this going to cause it?

A recession technically is when GDP in the economy, GDP is just like economic output, how much the economy is moving. when that declines for two quarters in a row. That's the technical definition. For most people, you don't need to worry about technical definitions because a recession in your mind is when you are feeling worse off economically for a long period of time.

A recession technically is when GDP in the economy, GDP is just like economic output, how much the economy is moving. when that declines for two quarters in a row. That's the technical definition. For most people, you don't need to worry about technical definitions because a recession in your mind is when you are feeling worse off economically for a long period of time.

When you feel like you can't get a job or your neighbors, your roommates can't get jobs and it's starting to hurt on you. It's kind of like, what's the definition of being sick? Well, it's when you don't feel good, but you can get more technical than that. But a recession for most people is when you don't feel good economically.

When you feel like you can't get a job or your neighbors, your roommates can't get jobs and it's starting to hurt on you. It's kind of like, what's the definition of being sick? Well, it's when you don't feel good, but you can get more technical than that. But a recession for most people is when you don't feel good economically.

So it's not that I'm not concerned, but it would be like saying, if you live in Florida, are you concerned about hurricanes? The answer is yes, you should be concerned about hurricanes. But you also know with 100% certainty that they're going to come. If you choose to live in Florida and you live in Florida for 40 years, you know you're going to get hit by one, 100% chance.

So it's not that I'm not concerned, but it would be like saying, if you live in Florida, are you concerned about hurricanes? The answer is yes, you should be concerned about hurricanes. But you also know with 100% certainty that they're going to come. If you choose to live in Florida and you live in Florida for 40 years, you know you're going to get hit by one, 100% chance.

And so it's not that I don't worry about it. It's that I think it is inevitable, always, no matter what's going on. This has nothing to do with tariffs. That's always been the case. And so this is where... At the individual level, personally, like room for error in your finances is so critical. What I mean by that is just like savings, cushion, being scared of debt.

And so it's not that I don't worry about it. It's that I think it is inevitable, always, no matter what's going on. This has nothing to do with tariffs. That's always been the case. And so this is where... At the individual level, personally, like room for error in your finances is so critical. What I mean by that is just like savings, cushion, being scared of debt.

When you're gainfully employed and you have a good paycheck and the stock market's going up and Bitcoin's going up, everyone feels great. You feel amazing. And it's very rare in that situation that you want to envision yourself losing your job. or losing a job and not being able to find another one for six months, or needing to move, or getting divorced, or having a medical.

When you're gainfully employed and you have a good paycheck and the stock market's going up and Bitcoin's going up, everyone feels great. You feel amazing. And it's very rare in that situation that you want to envision yourself losing your job. or losing a job and not being able to find another one for six months, or needing to move, or getting divorced, or having a medical.