Steven

Let's just pause and wait for things to happen. We're already seeing that. I'm sure this news will change by the time this airs. This is moving so quickly. But our shipping container imports from China have plunged in recent weeks, which is exactly what you would expect when you put that high of a tax on it.

I mean, if you were buying a house for a million dollars, and all of a sudden they put on 145% tax on that, you're probably not going to buy the house. And that's what's happening now.

I mean, if you were buying a house for a million dollars, and all of a sudden they put on 145% tax on that, you're probably not going to buy the house. And that's what's happening now.

The two likely outcomes, if it persists, are much higher prices and empty shelves. And I don't think anyone knows when or to the extent that could happen. And the button on the desk that says end this all could be pressed before that happens. But if it persists, that's what's likely to occur.

The two likely outcomes, if it persists, are much higher prices and empty shelves. And I don't think anyone knows when or to the extent that could happen. And the button on the desk that says end this all could be pressed before that happens. But if it persists, that's what's likely to occur.

Yeah, it's huge. Can you explain that to me?

Yeah, it's huge. Can you explain that to me?

trust is hard because you don't know how valuable it is until you lose it but once you lose it you're like oh that was everything and you know foreign investors people who don't live in the united states have 30 trillion dollars invested in america that's just in stocks and bonds that's not housing or office buildings just in stocks and bonds 30 trillion dollars that they've invested and a lot of the reason they do that well there's many reasons

trust is hard because you don't know how valuable it is until you lose it but once you lose it you're like oh that was everything and you know foreign investors people who don't live in the united states have 30 trillion dollars invested in america that's just in stocks and bonds that's not housing or office buildings just in stocks and bonds 30 trillion dollars that they've invested and a lot of the reason they do that well there's many reasons

One of which is because it's by and large seen as a trustworthy economy, a stable economy, an economy of rules and predictable laws and trust that you could not say the same about Russia. And so when global investors are looking where to park their money, this has been the case for the last 80 years. America is usually at the top of that list.

One of which is because it's by and large seen as a trustworthy economy, a stable economy, an economy of rules and predictable laws and trust that you could not say the same about Russia. And so when global investors are looking where to park their money, this has been the case for the last 80 years. America is usually at the top of that list.

There's also a thing where a lot of the reason that they invest money in the United States is because they have to, because they have a trade deficit with us. So if China is selling us a lot more stuff than they're buying from us, like we're importing a lot more from China than we're exporting back to them, they're going to end up with a lot of US dollars.

There's also a thing where a lot of the reason that they invest money in the United States is because they have to, because they have a trade deficit with us. So if China is selling us a lot more stuff than they're buying from us, like we're importing a lot more from China than we're exporting back to them, they're going to end up with a lot of US dollars.

And they need to do something with those dollars. They have to invest them somewhere. And historically, that's been in treasury bonds, which lowered our interest rates. And that was good for everybody.

And they need to do something with those dollars. They have to invest them somewhere. And historically, that's been in treasury bonds, which lowered our interest rates. And that was good for everybody.

It's debt that the government issues from the federal government. So it's a bond. You're loaning money to the government. And they're promising to repay you plus interest.

It's debt that the government issues from the federal government. So it's a bond. You're loaning money to the government. And they're promising to repay you plus interest.

Less trust and also less need to do it because they don't have as many dollars that they need to invest.

Less trust and also less need to do it because they don't have as many dollars that they need to invest.

It's interesting when people point like the odds of recession at 45% because they can't be wrong. Like if there isn't a recession, they'd be like, yeah, we said it was 45%. We didn't say it was going to happen. So my answer if you said are we heading for a recession would always be yes. If you asked me a year ago, if you asked me five years ago, like historically there's a recession.