Steven

It's interesting when people point like the odds of recession at 45% because they can't be wrong. Like if there isn't a recession, they'd be like, yeah, we said it was 45%. We didn't say it was going to happen. So my answer if you said are we heading for a recession would always be yes. If you asked me a year ago, if you asked me five years ago, like historically there's a recession.

In modern times, it's been every four to five years that it's occurred. And so we shouldn't pretend that when they happen, that they're this crazy out of the blue thing. It's an inevitable feature that you're always going to have recessions. But is this going to cause it?

In modern times, it's been every four to five years that it's occurred. And so we shouldn't pretend that when they happen, that they're this crazy out of the blue thing. It's an inevitable feature that you're always going to have recessions. But is this going to cause it?

A recession technically is when GDP in the economy, GDP is just like economic output, how much the economy is moving. when that declines for two quarters in a row. That's the technical definition. For most people, you don't need to worry about technical definitions because a recession in your mind is when you are feeling worse off economically for a long period of time.

A recession technically is when GDP in the economy, GDP is just like economic output, how much the economy is moving. when that declines for two quarters in a row. That's the technical definition. For most people, you don't need to worry about technical definitions because a recession in your mind is when you are feeling worse off economically for a long period of time.

When you feel like you can't get a job or your neighbors, your roommates can't get jobs and it's starting to hurt on you. It's kind of like, what's the definition of being sick? Well, it's when you don't feel good, but you can get more technical than that. But a recession for most people is when you don't feel good economically.

When you feel like you can't get a job or your neighbors, your roommates can't get jobs and it's starting to hurt on you. It's kind of like, what's the definition of being sick? Well, it's when you don't feel good, but you can get more technical than that. But a recession for most people is when you don't feel good economically.

So it's not that I'm not concerned, but it would be like saying, if you live in Florida, are you concerned about hurricanes? The answer is yes, you should be concerned about hurricanes. But you also know with 100% certainty that they're going to come. If you choose to live in Florida and you live in Florida for 40 years, you know you're going to get hit by one, 100% chance.

So it's not that I'm not concerned, but it would be like saying, if you live in Florida, are you concerned about hurricanes? The answer is yes, you should be concerned about hurricanes. But you also know with 100% certainty that they're going to come. If you choose to live in Florida and you live in Florida for 40 years, you know you're going to get hit by one, 100% chance.

And so it's not that I don't worry about it. It's that I think it is inevitable, always, no matter what's going on. This has nothing to do with tariffs. That's always been the case. And so this is where... At the individual level, personally, like room for error in your finances is so critical. What I mean by that is just like savings, cushion, being scared of debt.

And so it's not that I don't worry about it. It's that I think it is inevitable, always, no matter what's going on. This has nothing to do with tariffs. That's always been the case. And so this is where... At the individual level, personally, like room for error in your finances is so critical. What I mean by that is just like savings, cushion, being scared of debt.

When you're gainfully employed and you have a good paycheck and the stock market's going up and Bitcoin's going up, everyone feels great. You feel amazing. And it's very rare in that situation that you want to envision yourself losing your job. or losing a job and not being able to find another one for six months, or needing to move, or getting divorced, or having a medical.

When you're gainfully employed and you have a good paycheck and the stock market's going up and Bitcoin's going up, everyone feels great. You feel amazing. And it's very rare in that situation that you want to envision yourself losing your job. or losing a job and not being able to find another one for six months, or needing to move, or getting divorced, or having a medical.

And for a lot of people, they'll experience all of those. And so the idea that life is fragile and the economy is fragile, countries are fragile, is like people don't necessarily want to admit that because it's hard to get out of bed in the morning if you admit that to yourself. But I think it's inevitable. And it doesn't have to be necessarily scary if you have the right –

And for a lot of people, they'll experience all of those. And so the idea that life is fragile and the economy is fragile, countries are fragile, is like people don't necessarily want to admit that because it's hard to get out of bed in the morning if you admit that to yourself. But I think it's inevitable. And it doesn't have to be necessarily scary if you have the right –

psychology around it of just yeah like when times are good i don't expect them to last forever that's not how the world works and the right finances around it of like yeah when times are good i'm gonna save because i know this might not last forever and what i value more than anything with money is independence it's not flashy cars or homes i want to be independent

psychology around it of just yeah like when times are good i don't expect them to last forever that's not how the world works and the right finances around it of like yeah when times are good i'm gonna save because i know this might not last forever and what i value more than anything with money is independence it's not flashy cars or homes i want to be independent

So that when the economy goes south and there is a recession and things are going bad, I want to have a level of control over where I work, where I live, what I'm able to do, my ability to support my family. That's the top of the list. And so when things are going well, and for a lot of people, they haven't for the last couple of years, but for a lot of people, they did.

So that when the economy goes south and there is a recession and things are going bad, I want to have a level of control over where I work, where I live, what I'm able to do, my ability to support my family. That's the top of the list. And so when things are going well, and for a lot of people, they haven't for the last couple of years, but for a lot of people, they did.

I think that's always important. I think it's a major psychological skill in life in general. This goes beyond money. is recognizing when things are abnormally good and preparing yourself for them to go the other way as they inevitably will.