Stuart Miller

It would basically be the same. Decisiveness, the open-minded with a point of view, like at a high level, that's the same. There are moments where in 2008, 2009, we're like this, where you're on the field and the game itself changes in these structural ways. And people that can handle being comfortable with that level of change of mindset. no, you thought you had cash in a bank.

It would basically be the same. Decisiveness, the open-minded with a point of view, like at a high level, that's the same. There are moments where in 2008, 2009, we're like this, where you're on the field and the game itself changes in these structural ways. And people that can handle being comfortable with that level of change of mindset. no, you thought you had cash in a bank.

Actually, you don't. Oh, yes, you do. No, you don't. Those sort of movements of the game. I remember at the time, there were several managers who I would not have guessed felt wronged by... They were short. And when the SEC banned short selling, there was one guy in particular who just felt like that wasn't fair. I felt like the sentence underlying everything he said was, that's not fair.

Actually, you don't. Oh, yes, you do. No, you don't. Those sort of movements of the game. I remember at the time, there were several managers who I would not have guessed felt wronged by... They were short. And when the SEC banned short selling, there was one guy in particular who just felt like that wasn't fair. I felt like the sentence underlying everything he said was, that's not fair.

And that's a version of, I feel like, trying to be right rather than making money. Like, what? Nothing's fair. It's not fair that you have a gazillion dollars and you're managing a hedge fund. Like, what? Yeah.

And that's a version of, I feel like, trying to be right rather than making money. Like, what? Nothing's fair. It's not fair that you have a gazillion dollars and you're managing a hedge fund. Like, what? Yeah.

So I feel like if you told me there was some shift in, I don't know what it would be, but just in the game itself over the next five to 10 years, that it's useful to be so opportunistic and so flexible that you're fine with that and you flow with it rather than getting stuck. And it matters more during periods of punctuated equilibrium.

So I feel like if you told me there was some shift in, I don't know what it would be, but just in the game itself over the next five to 10 years, that it's useful to be so opportunistic and so flexible that you're fine with that and you flow with it rather than getting stuck. And it matters more during periods of punctuated equilibrium.

Scared and excited at the same time. Munger spoke at SOAN Australia a year before he died, and he had this amazingly poignant thing where he said, I was talking with Warren this morning, and we were both saying, like, if we could just watch what happens the next 30 years. And then he said, not even participate, just watch. Think how, like, oh.

Scared and excited at the same time. Munger spoke at SOAN Australia a year before he died, and he had this amazingly poignant thing where he said, I was talking with Warren this morning, and we were both saying, like, if we could just watch what happens the next 30 years. And then he said, not even participate, just watch. Think how, like, oh.

Yeah, I oscillate back and forth between fear around how my kids will navigate that reality and we as a society. And then Tyler Cowen's frame of like, number one, it's happening no matter what. Yeah. Number two, it's the return of history. Like there have been other eras that felt like this. And so that's how I try to rationalize it.

Yeah, I oscillate back and forth between fear around how my kids will navigate that reality and we as a society. And then Tyler Cowen's frame of like, number one, it's happening no matter what. Yeah. Number two, it's the return of history. Like there have been other eras that felt like this. And so that's how I try to rationalize it.

One thing is just the path dependence of it. You happen to have launched in a period where your first year, you made either good returns or bad returns. And then we tell all these stories after the fact. But I remember there was Cliff Asness, AQR. There was another manager who launched at the exact same time, very similar pedigree.

One thing is just the path dependence of it. You happen to have launched in a period where your first year, you made either good returns or bad returns. And then we tell all these stories after the fact. But I remember there was Cliff Asness, AQR. There was another manager who launched at the exact same time, very similar pedigree.

And it didn't work. And I remember one story on that is maybe they launched two months apart or something. There was a difference in their initial returns. Yeah. And then that led to just these crazy different that we have all these stories about after the fact.

And it didn't work. And I remember one story on that is maybe they launched two months apart or something. There was a difference in their initial returns. Yeah. And then that led to just these crazy different that we have all these stories about after the fact.

I think there's a path dependence and an arbitrariness and luck component that we, in retrospect, tell stories about skill and other things. Of course, real life is it's both and it's messy. So that's one.

I think there's a path dependence and an arbitrariness and luck component that we, in retrospect, tell stories about skill and other things. Of course, real life is it's both and it's messy. So that's one.

Yeah. Yeah. And have a feel for where you are in the cycle, obviously. That requires a macro judgment that most people wouldn't have or that may not be available in any given period.

Yeah. Yeah. And have a feel for where you are in the cycle, obviously. That requires a macro judgment that most people wouldn't have or that may not be available in any given period.