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Tamay Besiroglu

๐Ÿ‘ค Person
878 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Or it's going to give you one response and it's going to ask you if it's good or not.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Well, why are they doing that?

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

That's a way in which they are getting user data through this extremely broad deployment.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

So I think you should just imagine that thing to continue to be efficient and continue to increase in the future, because it just makes sense.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

And then there's a separate question of, well, suppose you didn't do any of that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Suppose you just tried to imagine the most rudimentary, the most narrowest possible kind of infrastructure build-out and deployment that would be sufficient to get this positive feedback loop that leads to much more efficient AIs.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I agree that loop could, in principle, be much smaller than the entire world.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I think it probably couldn't be as small as Transylvania Desert, but it could be much smaller than the entire world.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But then there's a separate question of would you actually do that?

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Would that be efficient?

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I think some people have the intuition that there are just these extremely strong constraints, maybe regulatory constraints, maybe social political constraints, to doing this broad deployment.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

They just think it's going to be very hard.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

So I think that's part of the reason why they imagine these more narrow scenarios where they think it's going to be easier.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But I think that's overstated.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I think people's intuitions for how hard this kind of deployment is comes from cases where the deployment of the technology wouldn't be that valuable.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

So it might come from housing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

We have a lot of regulations on housing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Maybe it comes from nuclear power.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Maybe it comes from supersonic flights.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I mean, those are all technologies that would be useful if they were maybe less regulated.