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Tim Fist

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166 total appearances
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Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

And cryptography is obviously a very widely used technique throughout the global economy, including in finance and internet transactions.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

And so the combination of these two things is actually a really good starting point for lots of the verification applications that we'll talk about today.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

Yeah, so there's many different classes of verification technology, right?

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

We've talked through a few of them.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

I guess something I want to emphasize is that if you take the sort of set of technologies that exist on chips today, so we talked about encryption and confidential computing as two key ones here,

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

These give you the ingredients to create a workable verification regime today, but one that is extremely brittle and easily broken by someone who wants to tamper with the chips to remove the features that you have there.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

NVIDIA has built a lot of these features and put them in already.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

I think that if you're trying to do something within sort of like a 12-month time span, you could potentially get by by layering these sort of fundamental verification technologies on the chips themselves with a bunch of low IQ options of the kind that Janet mentioned.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

One being human inspections, which is kind of like the lowest technology option.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

So, you know, in the nuclear space, human inspections have played like a really big role.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

So the New START treaty that governed nuclear weapons, human inspections have been used to do like randomized load notice time inspections of missiles to check how many warheads were actually deployed.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

And the same thing is done by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

they do short notice inspections of like uranium production and usage.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

So they do thousands of inspections a year at places like power reactors and enrichment facilities.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

And you can imagine something similar going on in the chip supply chain.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

And it turns out that through the principle of random inspection, you only need to actually do a small number of inspections to make sort of strong claims about like the overall stock and where it's located.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

Yeah, so right now there's about 20 million AI chips in the world.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

This is growing fairly quickly, but right now the total stock is somewhere around 20 million.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

We did the modeling on this recently.

Your Undivided Attention
We Need AI Treaties. This is How We Get Them

in order to have 90% confidence that they're all where they expect them to be, you'd need to do around 10,000 inspections per year.