Tim Miller

And just like the the risk calculation for some psychological Donald Trump thriller is I don't think that's a good risk calculation for him.

But we'll see how it plays out.

Even if he stopped today and did the Trump thing and declared victory, you know, and it's like, had you polled two weeks ago and said, hey, we're going to bomb Iran.

We're going to take out the Supreme Leader.

Six American troops are going to die.

Your gas prices are going to go up.

We don't know who is going to replace him.

I think that that prospect would have pulled it like 30% or 20%.

I mean, it would have been an extremely unpopular prospect.

And it seems like it's going to get worse from here.

The distinguishing thing about his 2015 candidacy was that he was willing to be overly aggressive and bigoted towards immigrants and brown people and that he didn't want to go to war.

I was like, those are the two things that Trump was saying.

There were 16 people on stage.

Nobody else was saying it.

He was the one who was being like, no, we should ban all Muslims and we should deport everybody here.

And also we shouldn't go to dumb wars.

Like no one else was saying either of those things.

He did both and the people were with him on both.

And so it's like it's a total betrayal of his original case to the voters.

It's a low confidence prediction for me.