Tim Miller

Kind of manipulating the oil markets off the record to reporters, not on the record.

And so it does seem like their whole strategy, at least today, PR-wise, has been around trying to limit the spike.

Yeah, I mean, I think there's two things to consider here, which is, you know, jawboning, PR, et cetera, these very sort of tactical things, talking about release of fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, et cetera.

There is nothing that can physically be done by this administration to really ameliorate the price of oil that can really counteract the complete or the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

There is no tool in the toolkit.

There are things at the margin that might be able to ease things a little bit.

Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that goes to its west coast that can allow some oil to be routed around that area.

There are things at the margin.

Right past the Houthis in Yemen.

That's right.

On the other side, that's what they have to deal with there.

At the margins, there are things, but not really.

But the other thing to consider is,

is that you talk to the oil experts and they say that if the market really took seriously that we are in a state of war and that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be opened anytime soon, that actually the market prices would be much higher than they are today.

That actually the price of a barrel of crude is still lower than the fundamentals would suggest because there is this belief that Trump is going to quote taco, that it can't be because this is truly, as one of our guests, Rory Johnston, put it.

This is the type of scenario that people don't even take seriously as a scenario because it's too cataclysmic to contemplate.

And so it's only almost discussed typically as a thought exercise.

And so the question is, does the market even fully believe the reality that's happening now?

So this jawboning, these PR attempts.

It kind of seems like they don't.