Tobes (author/narrator of the LessWrong linkpost)

The danger feels like a storm.

It started as vague clouds on the horizon and is now closing in.

I am looking for shelter.

I just don't understand how we are going to set policy to manage these things, I explain.

I feel confused and a little frightened.

No one seems to have any concrete policy ideas.

But my friend chimes in to say that while yeah there's a risk, it's probably pretty small and far away at this point.

Experts thinks it'll take at least 40 more years to get really powerful AI, she explains.

There is plenty of time for us to figure this out.

I am not totally reassured, but the clouds retreat a little.

Heading.

This is fine.

It is late January 2020 and I am at After Work Drinks in a pub in Westminster.

I am talking to a few colleagues about the news.

One of my colleagues, an accomplished government economist, is reflecting on the latest headlines about a virus in China.

We are overreacting, he argues, just as we did with SARS.

The government feels like it has to look like it's doing something, but it's too much.

He goes on to talk about how the virus is mostly just media hype.

Several other colleagues agree.

I don't respond to this.