Tobes (author/narrator of the LessWrong linkpost)

I'm proud of my work organising the event, but am feeling pretty nervous and hoping it goes well.

To inspire discussion, I have created a graph on the wall by the entrance to collect and present attendees' views on AI.

The two axes are, how long it will be until we have artificial general intelligence, and, the probability of AGI catastrophe.

As people come through the door they add a post-it note to the place on the graph that approximates their viewpoint.

Most people have put their post-its in a cluster centered at a 25% chance of catastrophe in around 20 years.

I stare at the second largest cluster in the top left of the graph.

Several people here think there is around a 75% chance of everyone being killed in around 7 years.

I think about the kill drones.

I think about the flash of the bomb.

I think about whether my pension is a waste of money.

I think about the unreal shock of the first days of lockdown in 2020.

I feel a pang of fear in my stomach.

I look around at the crowded room of people.

They are snacking on the fruit and hummus I bought and are talking eagerly.

I look with some trepidation at the lectern where I will soon be standing in front of everyone to introduce the first speaker.

They will be talking positively and insightfully about how we could govern advanced AI and what policies and institutions we need to ensure AI safety.

Right now I focus on my breath and try to let go of the fear for a moment.

I start to walk towards the front of the room.

I really, really, really hope that this goes well.

This article was narrated by Type 3 Audio for Less Wrong.