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Tom Bilyeu

πŸ‘€ Speaker
26465 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Welcome to part five.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

What do you do now?

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

The war didn't create the fragility in this system.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

The war revealed it, but inevitably, given that private credit stress is still building up, was building up before the missiles were fired and will continue to build long after we exit the war, regardless of what's happening in the Middle East today, there are certain things about my go-forward approach that are unlikely to change.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Here are the five things that I'm specifically doing in this moment.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

First, I'm trying to understand what I actually own and what it needs to survive.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Some assets require a smoothly functioning credit system to hold their value.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Private equity, leveraged real estate, high yield debt.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

In a credit contraction, these are gonna get hit first.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Not because the underlying businesses are necessarily bad, but because the cheap funding that supported their valuation start to disappear.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

All of us should take that with us as we audit what we own.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

ask honestly if credit tightens significantly from here what happens to this asset second trying to make sure that i do not confuse the noise with the signal on the dollar the loudest voices right now are screaming dollar collapse debasement and inflation and historically that has been where i've spent all of my focus as well

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Given our reckless spending, inflation remains a threat that I am certainly hedging against, but a rising dollar due to crisis-led deflation in the Eurodollar system is not strength, it's distress, and I'm factoring that into my thinking.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

It means the world is desperate right now for dollars that it can't get enough of.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

It means the monetary engine itself is contracting.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Be careful not to look only at the US and the Fed and go all in on a bet on inflation at the exact moment that the wider monetary system is at risk of deflation.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Watch the dollar and the cross currency basis.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

When they move together in the direction we've described, the distress signal is getting louder and louder.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Take that into consideration.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years β€” During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive

Third, I'm maintaining enough liquidity to preserve my optionality.