Tom Bilyeu

It's simply an argument that the early warning signals that preceded 2008 are present and describe a system that may be in a more fragile state than what existed before 2008 began.

Your mental model is likely to benefit from knowing that fact as you think about the potential changes you want to make to your allocations.

But even if I'm right about that, it doesn't mean the economic world is about to implode.

The people who got hurt the worst in 2008 weren't the ones who held through it.

They were the ones that panicked at the bottom or were in an economic situation where they were forced to sell because they didn't have enough capital on hand.

As always, guys, stay emotionally sober and build a strategy that can weather attacks from any acute direction.

Don't go all in on gold or tech or oil or anything else.

And don't pull the ripcord on things that are likely to bounce back.

The goal is a portfolio that can breathe when the credit markets are suffocating if that is indeed the major stressor that's playing out right now.

There is no such thing as a permanently invincible portfolio.

Just aim to be resilient enough to survive the disorder that we're living through and still be standing when the dust settles.

Nobody knows exactly how any of this is going to play out.

What you can control though is your position relative to the range of potential outcomes.

Are you fragile?

Built for glory in one scenario but vulnerable to being wiped out if it doesn't arrive?

Or are you anti-fragile?

Built to survive multiple outcomes and maybe even benefit from the volatility itself?

That's the only question that matters.

Not which way gold goes next week.

Not whether we stay in the war or get out.