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Tom Bilyeu

👤 Speaker
9026 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

In this case, you sell off your US assets and pay down your loans.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

And in the US case, you devalue the dollar.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

All right, the third thing that he's probably worried about is the volatility spillover.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So markets do not exist in silos all around the world.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Understanding how interconnected we are right now is very important.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

And when the world's third largest bond market, which is the Japanese government bonds, because of that low interest rates, when that market has a heart attack, it triggers

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

automated selling in risk parity funds, multi-billion dollar funds that automatically sell assets when volatility spikes.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Analysts at Citigroup recently warned that Japanese government bond volatility could force funds to dump up to $130 billion in US bonds purely to manage their risk profile.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So that's regardless of how healthy the US economy looks, things could be fine on our side, but they have covenants that they have to meet around risk, and so it would force them to sell things off.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Now, by signaling Fed support for the yen, Besant is essentially trying to lower the temperature of like all this instability.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

If the yen stabilizes, the fire sale stops.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So he's effectively protecting the US treasury market from being the liquidity ATM, right?

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So the yen is declining in value, everybody's panic selling, and now because you have to raise rates to stabilize everything, and now...

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

you are selling off in the US to get the money that you need.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

And that ends up hurting the US economy.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So the last time the US and Japan engaged in a major coordinated intervention to support the yen was June of 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

In that instance, the joint effort was designed to prevent a regional devaluation war and restore stability to global markets after the yen hit 147.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So we're higher than that now.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Do I have this wrong?

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

You do.