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Tom Bilyeu

👤 Speaker
9026 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Now, there are likely three things that Besson is worried about right now.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

First, Japan is the single largest foreign holder of U.S.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

debt, owning roughly $1.1 trillion in treasuries.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

For years, JGB yields were near zero, so Japanese pension funds and insurers, they had to buy U.S.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

treasuries to get any return to make good on their promises to the people that hold their products.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

But if JGB yields rise towards the 3% and 4% that we see them moving towards now, while the yen is strengthening, those Japanese investors no longer need the hassle of US assets.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So they would just repatriate their cash by selling US treasuries and buying the Japanese government bonds.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

The massive selling of US bonds

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

would drive US interest rates up, making mortgages and car loans and things like that more expensive for Americans.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Okay, the second thing that Besson is most likely worried about, something we've talked about here before, the yen carry trade.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

That unwinding would be a problem.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So this is the borrow cheap, invest high strategy that we've talked about.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So the trade goes like this, borrow yen at say 0.5% interest, sell it for dollars and buy US tech stocks or treasuries yielding 4.5%.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

It's magic money.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

It is an infinite money glitch, of course, until it's not.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Now, the crisis, if the yen suddenly gains value or the Japanese government bond yields rise, the cost of that cheap borrowed yen skyrockets.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

Investors are then forced to fire sale the things that they've bought with that borrowed money.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

So they'd have to dump their US assets effectively all at once to pay back their yen before they're wiped out by the rising interest costs.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

This, by the way, is the same reason that you know that America, the Fed, is going to lower rates because you see that cliff of debt coming.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Civil War Symptoms? Minnesota Meltdown, Alex Pretti, China’s Attempted Coup Drama & Iran on Edge | Tom Bilyeu Show Live

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