Tom Gardner
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
We have to move.
Yeah, so I use two market indicators primarily to guide my thinking.
And I really am using market indicators to tilt, not to go all in, you know, or exit entirely the market.
I just don't think that way.
I think the history of people who made extreme calls, of course, they're going to get some right.
But in general, they actually...
At best, they're net neutral, and they probably cause a lot of tax implications for people.
I think what we should be teaching investors worldwide is to be more incremental and to recognize that the equity markets go up over time.
There can be some bad stretches.
We could take some extreme cases like Japan since 1989, so I don't want to generalize too much or oversimplify this, but I think in a market that's
dynamic like the u.s market has good regulatory standards and there isn't a lot of inside baseball dealings between boards and executives all protecting each other so we have a really competitive market in the us and so i think i would look at the market and say of course they're going to be 40 declines at certain points along the way so i i would definitely want to work back from a 40 decline with my investment portfolio and ask you know what will that mean for me in my life
If I have a million dollars in this portfolio and it goes down 40%, I'm down at 600,000.
Like that is a horrible experience to have.
Most people, the idea of losing $400,000 in your lifetime.
But as you get older and move closer to retirement, you have more and more people who have a million dollar portfolio.
And also they're starting to run out of their income years.
So those 40% declines can have a much more profound effect on their lifestyle and their quality of their life.
Of course, there was the Great Depression, but I think we have a lot more protections, a lot more solidity and dynamism to our market that 40% is a good one to work off of.
So then I, tracking back from that, I use my two market indicators.
The first is the potential growth indicator, the PGI, and the second is our market view tool, which is AI-powered.