Tracy Alloway

And we're talking years and years and years. And Joe and I like to talk about one of our favorite examples of this is U.S. housing. So in the aftermath of 2008, a lot of house builders obviously went bankrupt. There was a lot of capacity taken out of the home building market. And you could argue that even today, more than a decade later, that capacity hasn't been replaced.

So, you know, memories for this kind of stuff are actually fairly long. And so the capacity question is going to be a big one. How long will it actually take for us to react to some of these tariffs? These are huge, expensive projects, take a lot of time, take a lot of money to build massive factories, even simplistic ones to make sneakers or whatever.

So, you know, memories for this kind of stuff are actually fairly long. And so the capacity question is going to be a big one. How long will it actually take for us to react to some of these tariffs? These are huge, expensive projects, take a lot of time, take a lot of money to build massive factories, even simplistic ones to make sneakers or whatever.

So, you know, memories for this kind of stuff are actually fairly long. And so the capacity question is going to be a big one. How long will it actually take for us to react to some of these tariffs? These are huge, expensive projects, take a lot of time, take a lot of money to build massive factories, even simplistic ones to make sneakers or whatever.

The other thing I would just add on to that is all of this is happening at a time when there doesn't seem to be what economists call a fiscal offset situation. So the government isn't planning on spending any more money to try to boost domestic industries, or at least we certainly haven't seen it yet.

The other thing I would just add on to that is all of this is happening at a time when there doesn't seem to be what economists call a fiscal offset situation. So the government isn't planning on spending any more money to try to boost domestic industries, or at least we certainly haven't seen it yet.

The other thing I would just add on to that is all of this is happening at a time when there doesn't seem to be what economists call a fiscal offset situation. So the government isn't planning on spending any more money to try to boost domestic industries, or at least we certainly haven't seen it yet.

You know, if you oppose tariffs and then said, well, we're going to send billions of dollars into the U.S. economy to target strategic industries, that, you know, that could help. It would at least be a sort of cohesive economic plan. But we're not seeing that.

You know, if you oppose tariffs and then said, well, we're going to send billions of dollars into the U.S. economy to target strategic industries, that, you know, that could help. It would at least be a sort of cohesive economic plan. But we're not seeing that.

You know, if you oppose tariffs and then said, well, we're going to send billions of dollars into the U.S. economy to target strategic industries, that, you know, that could help. It would at least be a sort of cohesive economic plan. But we're not seeing that.

I mean, it is the energy industry is the heart of Trump's base in many ways. And the interesting thing about that Dallas Fed survey is, you know, it's not just the short term things like there was one guy. He was a supplier for parts in the oil industry, and he was basically saying, well, we had one supplier ask us if we could move all our production supplies.

I mean, it is the energy industry is the heart of Trump's base in many ways. And the interesting thing about that Dallas Fed survey is, you know, it's not just the short term things like there was one guy. He was a supplier for parts in the oil industry, and he was basically saying, well, we had one supplier ask us if we could move all our production supplies.

I mean, it is the energy industry is the heart of Trump's base in many ways. And the interesting thing about that Dallas Fed survey is, you know, it's not just the short term things like there was one guy. He was a supplier for parts in the oil industry, and he was basically saying, well, we had one supplier ask us if we could move all our production supplies.

to Canada, which is ironic because you would assume that's the opposite of what Trump intended. And one can only imagine how that supplier actually feels about all of this happening to his business. But the other thing to point out is there were people in that survey who are questioning the fundamental tensions in Trump's policy. So there is, again, this is all anonymous.

to Canada, which is ironic because you would assume that's the opposite of what Trump intended. And one can only imagine how that supplier actually feels about all of this happening to his business. But the other thing to point out is there were people in that survey who are questioning the fundamental tensions in Trump's policy. So there is, again, this is all anonymous.

to Canada, which is ironic because you would assume that's the opposite of what Trump intended. And one can only imagine how that supplier actually feels about all of this happening to his business. But the other thing to point out is there were people in that survey who are questioning the fundamental tensions in Trump's policy. So there is, again, this is all anonymous.

You just get a vague idea of what these businesses actually do. But there was one business that basically said, Trump's plan for energy independence in America doesn't work with oil prices at like $50 a barrel. We're seeing oil fall again today. You can't incentivize drillers to build new drills and produce more oil if the price is really low and capital costs remain pretty high.

You just get a vague idea of what these businesses actually do. But there was one business that basically said, Trump's plan for energy independence in America doesn't work with oil prices at like $50 a barrel. We're seeing oil fall again today. You can't incentivize drillers to build new drills and produce more oil if the price is really low and capital costs remain pretty high.

You just get a vague idea of what these businesses actually do. But there was one business that basically said, Trump's plan for energy independence in America doesn't work with oil prices at like $50 a barrel. We're seeing oil fall again today. You can't incentivize drillers to build new drills and produce more oil if the price is really low and capital costs remain pretty high.

It's just not going to work.