S2 Ep1013: Mallory McMorrow and Tracy Alloway: A Self-Inflicted Crisis
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What is the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies?
Hey, guys, we've got a great double header for you today. Mallory McMorrow announced she was running for Senate yesterday. So I'm planning to have her on to discuss the campaign and more. And then I wanted to bring in somebody who had real expertise on what's happening with the markets and the tariffs following yesterday's Liberation Day announcement. And so we brought in Tracy Alloway. who's a very insightful observer of what is happening in the markets. She writes a newsletter and does a podcast with my guy, Joe Weisenthal. So she, I think, is going to educate us. I'm going to have more economy experts on in the coming weeks and months because that is what Donald Trump has thrust upon us. And so look forward to that. And we'll probably have Tracy back when the time is right.
But before we get to it, since we got so wonky and nerdy in that first segment, I want to emote with you guys for a second. It is fucking insane that we are here with regards to the stock market and the economy. I mean, as I am taping this right now, the NASDAQ is down 5%, almost 6%, really. The S&P 500 is down 4.5%. This is all self-inflicted. None of this had to happen. There is not a bubble that has burst. There is not some issue in the credit markets. There were not a bunch of credit default swaps being bundled. This is not the big short. This is not a global recession. This is not a pandemic. It is just Trump chaos. Any pain you have in your retirement account or your 401k right now is only due to Trump chaos.
If you're one of the people who are going to lose their job over this, it's only due to Trump chaos. And here's the thing. Trump's Whole career has been failures like this. This was utterly predictable across every metric. We screamed it from the rooftops here at the Bulwark and elsewhere. He bankrupted a casino. How do you go bankrupt in the casino business? Trump steaks, Trump airlines, Trump water, fail, fail, fail. He's failed at everything. He was a horrific businessman. He was a good marketer. And we can be honest, he's been a pretty good political manipulator. That's what he's good at. He's a con man. He's good at conning people. But we are all about to experience unbelievable pain, unbelievable economic pain.
Because people who should have been smarter than this went along with the con. People who should have known better, who should have known Trump for who he is, went along with this and decided to take this risk because they thought maybe they might get a little tax cut. Or maybe there might be a little regulation cut that might help their business. Well, guess what? All of your fucking businesses are going into the tank right now. And it's hard to see a way out. Tracy Alloway will talk about that in a little bit more dispassionate way up next. She'll educate us, get us smart on what's happening. After that, we'll get to Mallory McMorrow. Very much look forward to it. Stick around. Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller.
We are on the morning following Liberation Day and we have been liberated from the value of our 401ks. I want to talk about that and much more with one of my favorite finance journalists, Tracy Alloway. She's a co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast alongside the stalwart, Joe Weisenthal, and also author of the Odd Lots newsletter. How are you doing, Tracy?
I'm good, thanks. There's a lot going on, huh?
Busy morning. Thanks for taking the time with us here at the Bulwark. I'm just pulling up my little Bloomberg account here because we're right off the top. Not looking great.
No.
Creators is the word you guys have got up here on the website.
That's right. And you've made this tricky by recording at exactly when the market actually opens. But I think at this point, we all know the direction is going to be down, right? The announcement in the Rose Garden Liberation Day was a lot worse than a lot of the professional economists and analysts were expecting. And this morning... If you look at my inbox, it's just a flurry of notes with the words recession and stagflation in them. Everyone is rushing to revise their forecast for the rest of the year. Most of the notes that I've seen are forecasting a dip in GDP, so that would be a recession. And a lot of them are ratcheting up. Inflation outlooks as well going to as high as 4% or 5%.
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