Travis Hoium

It was negative.

These 11 companies were all negative in 2023.

By the way, they were very positive if we go back to 2018, $85 billion worth of cashflow.

So now that's up to 123 in 2025.

So these are inherently cyclical businesses.

AI has been a tailwind for them.

Historically, that does not last in these businesses forever.

Once you get some sort of choke point in the industry, like memory is today, developers are going to figure out how to optimize a little bit better.

Hardware companies are going to change what they're buying and when they're buying it.

Companies are going to overinvest in capital expenditures.

So that's why this is...

This is sort of indicative of what I'm seeing as a bubble in artificial intelligence.

That doesn't mean that that bubble is going to burst.

It may be 1998.

We may have another two or three years left.

But I just this is where I get a little bit nervous about am I buying at the top or too close to the top for comfort?

Yeah, the consumer has got to be the big takeaway, and it's both good and bad.

If you look at, I think Under Armour and Nike are probably kind of in the same category.

Sorry, Nike shareholders, but they've moved much closer to that discounting.

We're going to win on price.