Trita Parsi

They're going to negotiate their own arrangements with Iranians because the fees are nominal, are very, very small.

And the idea of either going to war with Iran or just paying the small fee is a no-brainer for the vast majority of countries.

If the United States were its massive navy,

couldn't open up the straits militarily, what is South Korea or Japan going to do about it?

So I don't think this is going to end up working.

I don't think there's going to be an agreement.

Instead, I think there's going to be a non-agreement agreement, which means the two sides don't come to an agreement on any of these points or the majority of these points.

But it does not mean that the United States goes back into war with Iran.

Because Trump did the right thing of pulling out of this.

He should never have gone into this war.

At this point, it should be clear to everyone it was a mistake.

This does not serve U.S.

interests.

And even if the Israelis want to continue the war, that should be an Israeli war.

This should have been an Israeli war from the outset without the involvement of the United States.

And that is then going to leave a scenario in which there will not be an agreement, but there will be a new reality.

I think one of those realities is that the Iranians are going to charge tolls in the Persian Gulf, but the U.S.

is not going to lift sanctions on Iran.

It's not going to do any of those other things that the Iranians are asking for, but it's also not going to go back into a war that really does not have a path to victory.

At this point, I would be very surprised after Trump's experience in the last 39 days that he decides that this is worth another go.