Trita Parsi

There wasn't in the JCPOA and I don't believe that that will be the case with the Trump deal either.

It will be gradual, but I think you will start seeing ships going through the straits in larger and larger numbers already from five days from now.

But you have to remember, there's a large number of ships that are stuck in the straits and they're not in great shape by now because they've been standing still in extremely warm water right now.

So as soon as they get out of the straits and get to their home, wherever they're supposed to go, they have to go in for a significant cleaning.

And that's gonna create another,

when it comes to the flow of oil, because there's just not gonna be enough tankers on the seas.

And then of course, after that, the real stuff begins in terms of the negotiations over the nuclear issue.

But one other thing that will happen before that is what the Iranians have insisted on, and I think the administration correctly agreed to, which is that there has to be a regional ceasefire.

For this to be an end to the war, it cannot allow for other wars to continue in the region that can drag the US and Iran back into it.

And this is where also the biggest weakness or vulnerability of this deal is, because it means that the United States has to constrain Israel and the Iranians are gonna have to constrain Hezbollah.

And we saw just hours before the announcement of the deal that the Israelis did everything they could to sabotage the deal by attacking Southern Beirut, which they knew was a red line for the US and a red line for the Iranians.

Tell us about those attacks.

So there had been exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel prior to that, but the Israelis were striking Southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah was striking both at Israel itself, as well as Israeli forces inside of Lebanon, because the Israelis are inside of Lebanon right now.

Yeah, they invaded it.

Yeah, they invaded it.

But it was not at a level that justified an escalation from the Israeli side to strike at Beirut itself, particularly after what happened about 10 or so days ago, in which they did strike Beirut, knowing very well that there had been a warning both from Trump and by the Iranians.

And this time around, the Iranians did strike back at the Israelis, which is a very important development because for the first time, the Iranians were striking

at Israel for Israel striking Lebanon, not because Israel had struck Tehran, which was an attempt by the Iranians to essentially, after having established their own deterrence or reestablished their own deterrence, they were now going to extend that deterrence to Lebanon.

They do so for a variety of reasons.